“雷曼猎手”:科技股泡沫为15年最大

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15年前,美国科技股泡沫盛极而衰,很多互联网科技企业惨遭血洗。而今,科技股泡沫可能卷土重来。

因做空雷曼兄弟而名震华尔街的David Einhorn称,正做空一批科技股,因该类股票存在泡沫。

对冲基金绿光资本(Greenlight Capital)创始人之一David Einhorn在致投资者信中称:

15年后的今天,科技股正处于第二轮泡沫中。

我们判定股票是否存在泡沫的标准是:若使用传统估值法,该股是否有至少90%的下跌空间。

自3月5日触及近14年最高点位以来,纳斯达克指数回调幅度已达4.5%。然而,领跌纳指的恰恰是去年涨幅最大的那些股票。绿光资本表示,有一些迹象能够显示科技股泡沫有多么严重,

否认传统估值方法;因难以承受逐日盯市的损失,做空者被迫平仓;一些被华丽的概念包装起来的科技股在上市首日股价大涨,而这些公司的业绩表现却没有外表那么靓丽。

绿光资本还透露,正在做空多只高价趋势股,这些股票被他们称为“泡沫篮子”里的“酷小孩”。David Einhorn解释,之所以选择做空多只科技股,是因为相比于做空单一股票,做空一组股票的风险相对较低。

不过,绿光资本并未透露他们究竟做空了哪些科技股。

我们认为,当前一轮的科技股泡沫是上一轮的重现。但与上次相比,当前这轮泡沫涉及的大盘股更少,投资者也没有当年那么狂热。

不确定的一点在于:科技股泡沫究竟能膨胀到多大。

在上一轮科技股泡沫中,思科(Cisco)这只泡沫股中的“王中王”,股价暴跌了89%。亚马逊跌幅更深,高达93%。低质量的股票价格下跌程度更严重。

绿光资本资产规模高达103亿美元。其创始人之一David Einhorn以2007年卖空Bear Stearns和雷曼兄弟而闻名业界。他不仅是非常成功的对冲基金经理,还是世界一流的德州扑克玩家。他写过一本书:Fooling Some of The People All Of The Time,中文译名为《一路骗到底》。

David Einhorn也许是少数持不同意见者,因为华尔街的人可不这么想。多数分析师并不认为科技股存在泡沫,股票估值也没有过高,IPO活动也称不上疯狂。就在本月早些时候,高盛还曾发报告,列举六大理由坚称当前科技股没有泡沫。

不幸的是,投资者通常是在泡沫破裂后才会醒悟——未辨泡沫真面目,只缘身在泡沫中。

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