《大中报》特报 房产投资的避风港 阳光州的坦帕湾

Step Aside Toronto, Tampa is the New Real Estate hotspot

随着加拿大楼市持续飙升屡创新高，加拿大华人及外国投资者大量涌入温哥华和多伦多的房地产市场。但是专家仍继续警告称加拿大楼市面临修正风险。  面对未来市场的动荡，下一个安全的资金避风港又会是哪里？或许就是坐落在阳光州坦帕湾的温暖海滨城市。

With the Canadian housing market soaring to new heights, Chinese-Canadians and foreign investments are flooding into Vancouver and Toronto housing markets. But experts continue to warn that a correction is coming. With uncertainty around the corner, where is the next safe capital haven? The answer might lie in The Sunshine State, by the warm beaches of Tampa Bay.

每年冬季，都会有许多加拿大雪鸟族涌向美国的阳光州，以躲避严寒的加拿大之冬，抢购便宜的美国商品，和享受阳光的沐浴。而拥有面朝大海的酒店、豪华的赌场和度假村、繁华的购物中心和华丽的海滨别墅的坦帕市，无疑是南佛罗里达州的最耀眼的明珠之一。

                Each year, thousands of Canadian Snowbirds flock to the Sunshine state to avoid the gripping cold of Canadian winter, for cheap American goods, and to soak up the sun. From ocean facing hotels, to lavish casinos and resorts, bustling shopping centers, and gorgeous Oceanside beach houses, Tampa is one of the true gems in South Florida.

坦帕市拥有35万人口，也是三支职业大联盟球队的根据地。除此之外，坦帕市在每年冬天都会迎来成千上万的加拿大雪鸟族，但大部分加拿大华人对这座城市并不熟悉。

                Tampa, a city of 350,000, is home to three major league sports teams. On top of that, the city welcomes thousands of Canadian snowbirds each winter. But for most Chinese-Canadians, Tampa is a city they are unfamiliar with.

在短短几年中，坦帕已经成为美国最炙手可热的房地产市场之一，并且预计还会继续增长，根据CNN Money的排名，目前坦帕已是美国第七热门的房地产市场。

Within a few short years, Tampa has become one of the hottest markets in the United States and has been forecasted to continue experiencing growth and was ranked the 7th hottest market by CNN Money.

但是在坦帕白手起家的房地产大亨阿庞特认为，坦帕的排名应该还会更高。阿庞特及其公司Florida Notes已经在南佛罗里达州进行了数千宗房地产交易，其中大部分都是在坦帕。

                But Bryon Aponte, a self-made real estate mogul in Tampa, believes that Tampa should be ranked even higher. Aponte and his company, Florida Notes, have conducted thousands of deals in South Florida, with the bulk of them being in Tampa.

阿庞特称：“人人都想去奥兰多看米老鼠，但那却成为了旅游陷阱，而迈阿密的房价则已被高估。我可以选择美国的任何一个城市投资，但坦帕却令我驻足展望。”

                “Everyone wants to go to Orlando to see Mickey Mouse; it’s a tourist trap. Miami is overpriced. I could choose to be in any U.S. city, but Tampa is where I want to be right now,” says Aponte.

虽然距离2008年坦帕房地产市场崩溃已有六年时间，但大萧条的影响仍然挥之不去。尽管楼市已经强劲复苏，但坦帕的房屋止赎率仍为美国第七高，比达拉斯、凤凰城、甚至是底特律等城市高出一倍。事实上，佛罗里达州的房屋止赎率为全美最高，因为迈阿密、坦帕和奥兰多都在金融危机中遭受重创。

Even though the Tampa housing market collapsed six years ago in 2008, the effects of the Great Recession are still lingering about. Despite major strides of recovery, Tampa still has the seventh highest foreclosure rate in the United States—twice as many in cities such as Dallas, Phoenix, and even Detroit. In fact, Florida as a whole posted the nation’s highest foreclosure rate --with Miami, Tampa, and Orlando being the hardest hit metros.

金融危机令坦帕变成房地产金矿，使得阿庞特这样的投资者可以通过从银行低价买进，再高价卖给业主和其他投资者大赚一笔。

                The result of the financial crisis has made Tampa a real estate goldmine, allowing investors such as Aponte to make a killing by buying low from banks and selling high to owners and other investors.

据阿庞特称：“目前在坦帕投资时机已经成熟。由于此前楼市有大量的泡沫，在经济衰退前售价$15万元的房屋现在只要一半价格就可以买到，由于我有人脉和经验，并且熟悉坦帕，因此我可以进行如此规模投资。”

“The Tampa investment market is ripe right now. Ever since the massive bubble, homes that used to sell for $150,000 before the recession can now be picked up for half of that,” says Aponte. “I have the connections, the experience, and knowledge of Tampa that allows me to do this.”

尽管阿庞特通过立即转手倒卖发了小财，但他同时也参与了其他许多房地产交易，其中包括“旧屋改造”、租赁、拆除和重建。

Although Aponte has made a small fortune by buying and dumping immediately, he is also involved in numerous other avenues of real estate. Among them are ‘fix and flips’, rentals, and teardowns and rebuilds.

阿庞特并不是唯一一个摘取唾手可得的果实的人。据《坦帕湾时报》报道，跨国对冲基金公司已经向坦帕楼市投资数百万元资金。仅是在2013年，Blackstone Investments 和 Waypoint Asset Management就在坦帕购买了数千套物业，总价值超过$8亿元。

Aponte isn’t the only one picking the low hanging fruit though. According to The Tampa Bay Times, multinational hedge fund companies are pumping hundreds of millions into the city. Just in 2013, Blackstone Investments and Waypoint Asset Management purchased thousands of properties, amounting to more than $800 million.

据阿庞特称：“目前我在一个理想的地区购买了一套1800平方英尺的房屋，我打算将其重划为住宅业务，我会在三个月内将其翻新并以$35万元的价格出售，而我一共投资了$18.5万元。此外，我每月可以收取$3800元租金。”

 “As of right now, I’m picking up an 1800 square foot house in a decent area. I’m going to rezone it as Residential Business, renovate it and sell it for $350,000 in three months—in total I’d invest $185K,” claims Bryon. “On top of that, I would collect $3800 a month in rent.”

令人震惊的是，坦帕目前的房价中值为$17.7万元，与加拿大相比低得令人难以置信。目前，多伦多的平均房价（包括公寓、独立屋和半独立屋）已经得到惊人的$55万元。举一个例子就足以说明多伦多的楼市有多疯狂，在2013年，多市一套210平方英尺的房屋（没有卫生间和厨房）以$16.5万元的价格成交。

                Shockingly, the median house price in Tampa stands at $177,000. Compared to Canadian standards, Tampa’s home prices are unfathomable. Today, the average home price (including condos, detached and semi-detached) in Toronto stands at a staggering $550,000. To illustrate the housing craze in Toronto, a 210-sq foot Toronto house (with no bathroom and kitchen) sold for $165,000 in 2013.

随着加拿大楼市持续飙升，欢呼声和警告声也随之而来。在成千上万的投资者蜂拥投资多伦多和温哥华等热点市场之际，某些警告称加拿大楼市可能会出现软着陆，而另被一些人则认为会面临灾难性后果。

                The continued surge in the Canadian housing market has been met with both enthusiasm and caution. As thousands of investors pump capital into hot markets, such as Toronto and Vancouver, experts have simultaneously warned of a soft landing with others claiming a disaster is looming.

但是加拿大楼市的资金究竟是来自何方？据《环球邮报》最近的一篇报道称，温哥华最大的地产公司之一Macdonald出售的独立屋中，有三分之一的买家与中国大陆有一定关联。尽管缺乏可验证的信息，但由此也可推断外国资金亦对多伦多楼市造成重大影响。

But exactly where is the capital coming from? A recent report from The Globe and Mail reveals that one-third of Macdonald Realty’s—one of the largest real estate firms in Vancouver--single-detached home sales were sold to people with ties to mainland China. Despite the lack of verifiable information, it is not unreasonable to conclude there is significant foreign influence on the Toronto real estate market.

由于中国国家主席习近平推出的新反腐措施导致政治不稳定，并且据估计中国通货膨胀率将达到3%，目前有大量中国人在寻求投资国外资产。

With political instability caused by President Xi’s new crackdown on corruption and inflation rates estimated at 3%, thousands of Chinese are looking to park their money in foreign assets.

在多伦多拥有物业的中国商人张先生称：“中国的利率太高，有些中国银行的利率可能要超过10%，而相比之下，加拿大利率非常低，在这里的投资可以获得很大的回报。”

“The interest rate in China is so high—maybe more than 10% in some Chinese banks,” says Mr. Zhang, a Chinese businessman who owns real estate in Toronto. “Compared to China, the interest rate is extremely low in Canada, and I can make a big return here.”

张先生在2009年花$80万元在多伦多购买了一套房屋，在几个月前他以超过$100万元的价格将这套房屋出手。和其他许多中国投资者一样，张先生是被加拿大的低按揭利率吸引，并推测加拿大楼市将会持续火热。但是加拿大皇家银行一位经济学家最近发表报告称，按揭利率将从2016年开始上调。该报告进一步指出，届时房屋销售将开始放缓，房价也会出现下跌。

Zhang, who purchased an $800,000 Toronto home in 2009, sold his property for more than $1 million a few months ago. Zhang, like many other Chinese investors, are enticed by low mortgage rates in Canada and speculate that the market will continue to remain heated. But a recent report by an economist at Royal Bank of Canada claims that interest rates will start to rise by 2016. The report further claims that home sales will begin to slow and prices will peter out.

尽管张先生获得了惊人的回报，但是将所有资金都投注在单一的市场上是风险很高的投资策略。对于富裕的中国投资者来说，坦帕可能为他们提供扩大投资领域的机会。

Despite Zhang’s stunning returns, betting an entire fortune in a single market is highly risky investment strategy.  For wealthy Chinese investors, Tampa may offer and opportunity to broaden their investment horizons.

阿庞特称：“生活中最糟糕的事情就是将所有鸡蛋都放在同一个篮子里。”

“The worst thing you can do in life is put all your eggs in one basket,” says Aponte.

当被问及是否有兴趣在坦帕购买物业时，张先生表示担心当地楼市不稳定，并认为美国的潜在回报远远低于加拿大。

When asked if Zhang was interested in purchasing a property in Tampa, he cited concerns of instability and felt his potential return would be far lower in the United States.

但是，与过热的加拿大楼市相比，像坦帕这样仍处于复苏中的市场出现突然修正的风险要低得多。据物业和消费分析公司CoreLogic称，2014年房价上涨了14.6%，其同时预测2015年房价还会再上涨8%。

However, markets like Tampa are still recovering and the risk of a sudden correction is far lower compared with the overheated Canadian markets. According to CoreLogic, a property and consumer analytics corporation, home prices climbed 14.6% throughout 2014, and are forecasted to rise by another 8% through 2015.

阿庞特称：“我敢打赌加拿大楼市会在两年内出现大幅衰退，因为租金无法支撑房屋价格……一栋百万元的房屋永远无法赚到其所需的租金。如果你在市场下跌时持有物业资产，那你就会有大麻烦，其无异于危险的烫手山芋游戏。

“I bet there will be a massive downturn within two years in Canada”, says Aponte.  “The rentals don’t support the value…a million dollar home will never earn the rent that it demands. And if you’re holding onto the asset when the market goes south, you’re in big trouble. It’s a dangerous game of hot potato.”

阿庞特列举了一个简单的例子，花$40万元购买一套500平方英尺的公寓，将其出租每月可获取$1,800元租金收入，但是在扣除税费、利息、保险费和公共事业费后，将出现负资本（利润）率。

Using a simple example Aponte provided, purchasing a $400,000 condo of 500 square feet that earns $1,800 a month in rent would yield a negative capitalization (profit) rate after deducting taxes, interest, insurance, and utilities.

阿庞特称，投资坦帕物业则会赚取更丰厚的利润。由于坦帕的房价远远低于多伦多和温哥华，因此投资者可以在坦帕购买多套物业。按照阿庞特的策略，投资者可以先收取每套物业的租金，将来再将它们出售。

Aponte claims that investing in Tampa is a far more profitable investment. Since homes in Tampa are a fraction of Toronto and Vancouver home prices, investors would be able to buy multiple properties in Tampa. Ultimately, Aponte’s strategy would allow investors to collect rent on each property and allow them to sell in the future.

阿庞特表示：“人们只需要知道目前在坦帕投资非常有利可图，但是你必须亲身去体验。”

“People just need to be made aware that there’s a lot of money to be made in Tampa right now. But you got to see it for yourself.”