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大选专栏(七):安省定夺大选结局
Election 2015: parties and territories

Bob Mok的专栏文章将继续介绍各主要政党在各选区的优劣势。
Bob Mok’s column continues to explore the strength and weaknesses of each major party across Canada.
 
读者欲参照前文可点击:
Please refer to an earlier article for this series of discussions -    http://096.ca/news/550866  and  http://chinesenewsgroup.com/news/558925
 
草原省份(62个席位)——其中包括阿尔伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省和缅尼托巴省。

Prairies Provinces (62 seats) – Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba

 
在过去数十年里草原省份一直是联邦保守党的大本营,但是阿尔伯塔省新民主党在最近一次省选中大获全胜,也给联邦新民主党带来了希望。但鉴于新民主党在阿省政坛取得的突破性进展主要归因于该省的特性,因此很想象它将会影响联邦大选的结果。
 
These are Conservative bastions for decades but a recent election of the provincial NDP in Alberta has given hope to the Federal NDP. The breakthrough by the NDP in Alberta Provincial politics happened due to very special circumstances within the province and it is not conceivable that it will affect the outcome of the Federal election. 

 
民调显示联邦保守党在草原省份将一如既往地以巨大优势获胜,其余选票将由联邦自由党和联邦新民主党平分。

Polls indicated the Conservatives will win by a huge margin as before with the Liberal and NDP splitting the rest of the votes evenly.

 
卑诗省(42个席位)——尽管联邦保守党在过去两届联邦大选中都在卑诗省赢得逾半议席,但在此次大选中他们面临着更加激烈的竞争。由于卑诗保守党很长一段时间以来在省议会一直没有席位,因此卑诗省政府对联邦保守党的联邦竞选没有任何助益。

British Columbia (42 seats) – Even though Conservatives picked up over half the seats in the last 2 federal elections, they are facing a stiff competition this time around. Provincial politics do not play any role here as there are no Conservative members in the provincial legislature for quite some time.

 
最近的民调显示联邦新民主党在卑诗省处于领先地位,联邦自由党和联邦保守党则随其后,可谓平分秋色。

The recent polls showed the NDP taking the lead, with the Liberals and Conservatives following slightly behind, splitting the votes evenly.

 
特区(3个席位)——包括西北特区、努勒维特和育空。 

The Territories (3 seats) - Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Yukon.

 
三个特区各占一个议席。在上次联邦大选中,联邦保守党囊获两个特区议席,联邦新民主党则保住一个特区议席。这些议席对全局无关紧要,在此次大选中结果可能也会保持不变。民调专家甚至从未费心公布过这些特区的民调结果。

One seat is allocated for each one of the Territories. In the last election, the Conservatives captured two and the NDP retained one. These are insignificant in the total picture and probably will stay the same this time around. The pollsters never even bother to publish the polls taken for these areas!

 
在了解完所有省份和特区的投票趋势和席位分部后,很显然两个拥有最多议席的省份(魁省和安省)对大选胜负起着举足轻重的作用。因此,在安省投票结束开始计票不久后,人们就可以预测大选的赢家,而那时卑诗省的投票可能都还没有结束!
 
After reviewing all the provinces and Territories for voting tendencies and distributions, it is clear that the two provinces (Quebec and Ontario) together hold the balance of power by virtual of their seat numbers. Therefore, once the polls are closed in Ontario and the vote counting commences it will not be long before projections of winners can be made. This will happen even before the polls in the province of British Columbia are closed!

 
除非在投票日魁北克省会有奇迹发生,否则联邦自由党在此次大选中不可能组建任何政府。而在魁省一马当先的联邦新民主党则绝对不会轻易放弃魁省。
 
The Liberals cannot form any government unless a miracle happens on Election Day in Quebec. The NDP makes a stranglehold on Quebec and it is inconceivable that they can give it up easily.

 
在安省,联邦保守党在416和905(Metro Toronto)以外的地区人气畅旺,而联邦自由党则把持着多伦多市中心的大部分选区。联邦新民主党必需在安省取得突破性进展,才有可能组建下一届政府。从本质上说,由于联邦自由党和联邦新民主党意识形态相近,许多选区的选票将会均分于此两党,而这将有利于走中间路线的保守党候选人。安省选民将会定夺哪个政党组建下届联邦政府!

In Ontario, the Conservatives are strong outside of the 416 and 905 area code areas (Metro Toronto) while the Liberals hold most of the inner City ridings. NDP needs a breakthrough to have any chance of forming the next government. Essentially, many ridings will split their votes between the Liberal and the NDP due to their closeness in Ideology and this condition will benefit Conservative Candidates coming up the middle. Ontarians will determine which party will form the next Federal Government!


 
在过去几届联邦大选中,“少数族裔”候选人的得票对各主要政党愈发重要,关联性也愈发紧密。在此次大选中少数族裔选票的竞争将更加激烈。我们可以预期会有更多“少数族裔候选人”参加此次大选。同时我们也会看到更多在自己的族裔社区内声名赫赫的“明星”候选人。换句话说,也就是各政党将会全力以赴赢得这一“明星”战场。
 
The voting for “Heritage” candidates have taken on more importance and relevancy for each Major Party over the last few Federal elections. It is even more intense this time around. We can anticipate more “Heritage Candidates” participating in this election. We will see more “Star” candidates too – someone with a name and reputation within their own ethnic communities. In other words, the parties will pull out all the stops to win this epic fight.

 
 
在下一篇文章中,我们将探讨“少数族裔”候选人的影响,并介绍各省的少数族裔候选人,尤其是亚裔或华裔候选人。

Next time, we will discuss the impact of “Heritage” Candidates and look into these for each province and particularly those with an Asian or Chinese heritage. 
 
 
 

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