Election 2015: parties and territories

Bob Mok的专栏文章将继续介绍各主要政党在各选区的优劣势。
Bob Mok’s column continues to explore the strength and weaknesses of each major party across Canada.
Please refer to an earlier article for this series of discussions -    http://096.ca/news/550866  and  http://chinesenewsgroup.com/news/558925

Prairies Provinces (62 seats) – Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba

These are Conservative bastions for decades but a recent election of the provincial NDP in Alberta has given hope to the Federal NDP. The breakthrough by the NDP in Alberta Provincial politics happened due to very special circumstances within the province and it is not conceivable that it will affect the outcome of the Federal election. 


Polls indicated the Conservatives will win by a huge margin as before with the Liberal and NDP splitting the rest of the votes evenly.


British Columbia (42 seats) – Even though Conservatives picked up over half the seats in the last 2 federal elections, they are facing a stiff competition this time around. Provincial politics do not play any role here as there are no Conservative members in the provincial legislature for quite some time.


The recent polls showed the NDP taking the lead, with the Liberals and Conservatives following slightly behind, splitting the votes evenly.


The Territories (3 seats) - Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Yukon.


One seat is allocated for each one of the Territories. In the last election, the Conservatives captured two and the NDP retained one. These are insignificant in the total picture and probably will stay the same this time around. The pollsters never even bother to publish the polls taken for these areas!

After reviewing all the provinces and Territories for voting tendencies and distributions, it is clear that the two provinces (Quebec and Ontario) together hold the balance of power by virtual of their seat numbers. Therefore, once the polls are closed in Ontario and the vote counting commences it will not be long before projections of winners can be made. This will happen even before the polls in the province of British Columbia are closed!

The Liberals cannot form any government unless a miracle happens on Election Day in Quebec. The NDP makes a stranglehold on Quebec and it is inconceivable that they can give it up easily.

在安省,联邦保守党在416和905(Metro Toronto)以外的地区人气畅旺,而联邦自由党则把持着多伦多市中心的大部分选区。联邦新民主党必需在安省取得突破性进展,才有可能组建下一届政府。从本质上说,由于联邦自由党和联邦新民主党意识形态相近,许多选区的选票将会均分于此两党,而这将有利于走中间路线的保守党候选人。安省选民将会定夺哪个政党组建下届联邦政府!

In Ontario, the Conservatives are strong outside of the 416 and 905 area code areas (Metro Toronto) while the Liberals hold most of the inner City ridings. NDP needs a breakthrough to have any chance of forming the next government. Essentially, many ridings will split their votes between the Liberal and the NDP due to their closeness in Ideology and this condition will benefit Conservative Candidates coming up the middle. Ontarians will determine which party will form the next Federal Government!

The voting for “Heritage” candidates have taken on more importance and relevancy for each Major Party over the last few Federal elections. It is even more intense this time around. We can anticipate more “Heritage Candidates” participating in this election. We will see more “Star” candidates too – someone with a name and reputation within their own ethnic communities. In other words, the parties will pull out all the stops to win this epic fight.


Next time, we will discuss the impact of “Heritage” Candidates and look into these for each province and particularly those with an Asian or Chinese heritage. 

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