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大选专栏(十二) : 大选结果预测

在联邦大选最后一周进入倒计时之际,Bob Mok对大选结果进行了预测。
Bob Mok predicts the election outcomes as the final week of the election campaign counts down.
 
读者欲参照前文可点击:
Please refer to an earlier article for this series of discussions -    http://096.ca/news/550866 , http://096.ca/news/558925 ,  
 
 
我们即将迎来2015年联邦大选前的超级周末。在10月19日(周一),加拿大人将会选举出新任政府。如果我们选出多数政府,在接下来的四年里将会拥有稳定的政治环境。若非如此,我们有可能会在明年年初财政预算案公布之后,甚至是在此之前就因为反对党提出不信任动议而面临又一次大选。

We are now coming up to the weekend before the Federal Election 2015. On Oct 19 (Monday), Canadians will choose the next Government. If we elect a Majority Government, then there will be stability and focus over the next 4 years. If not, we will probably face an election right after the budget early next year or before that by way of a non-confidence motion by opposition parties.

 
在过去一个月里,大量民调结果让人应接不暇,其中有一些民调是由居心叵测的机构赞助,而另一些则是独立公正的调查。虽然联邦新民主党一度居于领先地位,但现在势头已经减弱,而联邦保守党则后劲十足。最初,选战焦点是经济议题,但之后有关接收叙利亚难民的外交政策,以及穆斯林妇女要求带面纱参加入籍宣誓仪式等问题逐渐成为焦点议题。

Over the last month, we were bombarded by many polls. Some of those are sponsored by organizations with ulterior motives while others are independent and impartial. The NDP took the lead at one time but eventually abated and the Conservatives surged forward. Initially, the election was focused on the economy. Then, it was replaced by foreign policy towards acceptance of Syrian refugees and the issue on Muslim women’s demand for wearing niqab at the citizenship oath ceremonies. 

 
此次大选的结果很难预料!对于338个选区议席的归属,最新且最公正的预测结果如下:
保守党  (C) – 97
新民主党 (N) – 85 
自由党(L) – 75
魁人政团 (BQ) – 1
绿党 (Green) – 1
难以预测席位 (TC) – 79

This election is too close to call! Of the 338 ridings, the most up-to-date and impartial tabulations are as below:
Conservatives  (C) – 97
NDP (N) – 85 
Liberals (L) – 75
Bloc Quebecois (BQ) – 1
Green Party (Green) – 1
Too close to call (TC) – 79

 
但是一旦有任何政党出现重大失误,该预测结果也会随之改变。在过去几周里,就有几名候选人因为过去的不当行为以及/或是曾在社交媒体或宣传资料上发表不当政治言论而被迫退出选举。

This is a photo finish hinging on no major slip-ups by any parties. A few candidates had to drop out of the races over the last few weeks due to their  conduct and/or politically incorrect opinions expressed in social media or printed materials in their past. 

 
不要指望任何“边缘政党”候选人(除了魁人政团和绿党)能够当选。国会议员候选人在向当地选举事务署官员递交提名表格时,还必须缴纳$1,000元提名保证金。如果候选人能够按时正确完成并递交所要需财务报表,就可获得保证金退款;如果候选人在所竞逐选区获得超过10%的选票,就可报销部分竞选开支。提名保证金意在阻止将议会选举当儿戏的候选人参选。

Do not expect any other “fringe party” candidates (other than Bloc Quebecois and Green party) getting elected. A candidate for Member of Parliament must make a $1,000 nomination deposit when the candidate's nomination paper is filed with the local returning officer. All candidates receive their deposit back if they turn in their properly completed financial paperwork on time, and a portion of election expenses are reimbursed if the candidate garners over 10% of the votes in the contested riding. Nomination Deposits are supposed to deter candidates who are not serious from standing for parliamentary election. 

 
截至写稿时,各选区的选举势利并未发生太多变化。下面就让我们快速回顾一下前文介绍的内容:

At the time of writing this article, not much has changed as far as regional dominations are concerned. To recap our earlier assessment:

 
大西洋省份(32个议席)——其中包括纽芬兰及拉布拉多省、爱德华王子岛省、新斯科舍省以及新布伦瑞克省。联邦自由党在大西洋省份占据上风。(议席预测C=2, L=19, N=4, TC=7)

Atlantic Provinces (32 seats) - Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Liberal party has the upper hand here.(C=2, L=19, N=4, TC=7)

 
魁北克省(78个议席)——虽然联邦新民主党强劲的竞选势头有所减弱,但仍然足以保住在上次大选中赢得的大部分魁省席位。(议席预测C=5, L=10, N=44, TC=18, BQ=1)

Quebec (78 seats) – The Strong NDP domination has waned but still strong enough to retain most seats held from last election. (C=5, L=10, N=44, TC=18, BQ=1)

 
安省(121个议席)——安省将会定夺大选结局。联邦自由党将在摇摆选区(这些选区长期以来一直都摇摆在两党之间)占据优势。安省的几个选区中的许多选票会分布于联邦自由党和联邦新民主党之间,该局势将有利于保守党。(议席预测C=40, L=35, N=17, TC=29)

Ontario (121 seats) – This is where the election is decided. Liberals will make gains in swing ridings (those ridings that traditionally and historically changed hands between 2 parties). There are a number of ridings where many votes will be splitting between Liberals and the NDP and those will favour the Conservatives. (C=40, L=35, N=17, TC=29)

 
草原省份(62个席位)——其中包括阿尔伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省和缅尼托巴省。毫无疑问联邦保守党在草原省份将会继续傲视群雄,囊获该地区绝大多数议席。(议席预测C=42, L=5, N=6, TC=9)
Prairies Provinces (62 seats) – Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. No question of Conservative dominations here taking up a huge majority of seats. (C=42, L=5, N=6, TC=9)
 
卑诗省(42个席位)——联邦新民主党在卑诗省将会一马当先,赢得略超一半的议席。(议席预测C=8, L=5, N=13, TC=15, Green=1)

British Columbia (42 seats) – NDP will have an advantage here picking up slightly more than half of the seats. (C=8, L=5, N=13, TC=15, Green=1)

 
特区(3个席位)——包括西北特区、努勒维特和育空。我的最后一次预测是联邦自由党将会赢得一席,联邦新民主党将会囊获一席,还有一个席位实在难以预测。三个特区的总议席数(3个)对全局无关紧要,根本微不足道。

The Territories (3 seats) - Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Yukon. Last time I looked, one seat will now be Liberal, one NDP, and the other one is simply too close to call. The totals seats here (3) will be insignificant and “irrelevant” in reality. (L=1, N=1, TC=1)
 
 
在下周,我们将分析大选结果,而大选本身才是真正的民调结果。

Next week, we will look at what happened on Election night. It is the only poll that counts.

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