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多伦多高房价让华裔投机者趋之若鹜
Canada’s housing boom sparks rampant speculations in the Chinese community

 
多伦多炙手可热的房地产市场一直高歌猛进血脉喷张。由于住宅上市量,尤其是独立屋供不应求引发激烈竞标战并掀起购买狂潮,进一步将当地房价推高至高不可攀的地步。除此之外,卑诗省新推的国外买家税政策的外溢效应亦在多伦多起到推波助澜的作用,令本就远超供给的需求量进一步高涨。

Toronto real estate market is red hot, showing fire-breathing strength.  Shortage of supply for detached homes sparked heated bidding wars and buying frenzies, pushing the prices through the roof. Adding fuel to the fire is the spillover effect of the B.C. tax policy on foreign buyers in Toronto, fueling the demand that has already far exceeding the supply.  

过热的房市让金融分析师们不知所措,也让加拿大央行不断发出家庭债务过高的警钟,行业观察家也对过高房价担忧加剧。但是尽管一些悲观者持负面预测,并且加拿大央行一再发出警告,多伦多房市仍然继续高歌猛进,房价年年飙升。

This overheated market has sent the financial analysts on edge, prompting household debt warnings from the central bank and overvalued concerns from industry observers. But despite naysayers’ predictions and BOC’s repeated warnings, the market has continued to debunk their prediction, showing rapid rise in prices in recent years.  

房市热潮似乎也给华裔社区内许多热衷于趁着房市东风而大量积财累富的投机者带来了淘金机会。迅速飙升的房价在华裔社区内掀起购房狂潮,许多人为了购房甚至不惜动用退休储蓄和净值信贷额度贷款。

The housing boom seems to have provided a gold rush opportunity for many speculators in the Chinese community, who are eager to ride the housing boom wave to the pinnacle of wealth. The rapid price surge has prompted frantic buying activities in the community – from pulling out their retirement savings to borrowing against equity line of credit. 

据一名地产经纪称,对于缺乏热门就业技能的新移民来说,在多伦多获得立足之地的最便捷方法就是在当地购置房产。

A real estate agent said that for newcomers who lack marketable employment skills, the easiest and fastest way to make a living in Toronto is to tap into the housing market.

该名地产经纪称:“想想看,你只需要坐拥一栋房屋每年什么都不用干至少就可以赚到$10万元,有哪份工作可以与之媲美?不过这一切都要取决于你是否付得起足够的首付。”

“Think about it, you can make at least $100 grand a year by owning a home by just sitting and doing nothing. What types of jobs here can offer such a lucrative opportunity? But it all depends on whether you can pull out enough down payment or not,” the agent said. 

我的一个邻居虽然已经坐拥三套房产,但仍在说如果她早知道房价会涨到这个地步,她就应该再多买几套房子。

One resident in my neighbourhood who has already bought three homes said that she should have bought more, had she known that the price would have gone up to this level. 

这种疯狂的房屋抢购行为也使得许多坐壁上观的人士深感嫉妒和懊悔。

The frantic home buying has left many who were sitting on the fence jealous and regretful. 

“我的一个朋友已经通过房地产投资赚了$430万,我真后悔自己没有像她那样入市投资。她在几年前就对我说多伦多的独立屋均价可能会涨到$200万元,但我当时我还不信,可现在多市的独立屋均价已经看涨至$300万元!”

“A friend of mine has already made $4.3 millions by making real estate investments.  I am deeply regretful that I didn’t jump into the market in the same way as she did. When she told me that average price of detached homes in Toronto could reach as high as $2 million a few years ago, I didn’t believe it, but now that target has been revised to $3 million! ”

虽然多伦多独立屋的看涨目标令人瞠舌,但是与一些分析家所预测的2040年将会高达$2000万元的温哥华独立屋均价相比,似乎只是小巫见大巫。

That target while stunning, seems pale in comparison with the $20 million home price target in Vancouver by 2040 that some analysts have predicted.  

《麦克林杂志》今年5月发表的一篇名为《房市泡沫分析》的文章指出,尽管缺乏数据分析,但大量具有说服力的迹象已经表明房市陷入泡沫危机。当人们将警告抛诸脑后,一窝蜂进行疯抢,并且谁都“不想错失”参与房市淘金的机会的时候,表明房市已经到达了崩溃和大量财产损失的边缘。

While data-driven analysis is lacking, there are plenty of more persuasive telltale signs indicating that the housing market is already in bubble. According to a Maclean’s’ article “the anatomy of housing bubble” published in May. When caution is thrown to the wind, when panic buying is prevalent, and when people’s hard-wired desire to “not want to miss out” comes into full play, we are on the verge of a big market crash and a massive wealth destruction. 

该篇文章还称,虽然大量涌入加拿大房市的中国热资已经超过$1万亿元,但来自中国的资金绝不会无止境地延续下去,因为中国政府势必会出台政策阻止大量资本外逃,从而会导致机关算尽温哥华和多伦多的当地房产主们空欢喜一场。

The large influx of capital out of China – which is over $1 trillion – will simply not continue endlessly, says the article. The Chinese government will issue policies to stop the massive capital flight, leaving the homeowners of Vancouver and Toronto holding the bag. 

但是在中国政府采取行动之前,卑诗省府已经抢先一步推出主要针对来自中国的国外买家课税政策以遏制房市投机行为,而该项新税制已经导致温哥华8月房屋交易量出现锐减。

But before the Chinese government takes action, the B.C. government has taken a move ahead to curb the speculative behaviours by taxing on foreign buyers from China, which has caused rapid decline in sales volume in Vancouver market in Aug.  

同样,如果由政府的禁止城市扩张政策导致的住房供给短缺继续推高多伦多房市,进而加重住房负担能力危机,安省政府可能也会放宽土地使用限制,从而可以兴建更多低层建筑以满足市场需求。

By the same token, if the shortage of supply – due to government policy to curb urban sprawling -- continues to fuel the overheated Toronto housing market, accelerating the affordability crisis, the Ontario government may release the restrictions on land use, so more low-rise buildings can be erected to meet the market needs.

此外,安省政府也有可能效仿卑诗省府,推出类似新税制向中国投资者征税以为房市降温,因此那些坚信房价将会继续狂飙的投机者可能永远都无法获得他们所期望的丰盛晚宴。

And it may issue similarpolicies as in B.C. to tax on foreign investments from China to cool the market down, so those who hold the insane projections of home prices may never be able to get the lucrative profits they expected.
 

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