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赵成俊乘保守党东风胜出士嘉堡-红河区补选
Scarborough-Rouge River by-election and rising blue tide

 
保守党候选人赵成俊日前乘蓝色东风胜出士嘉堡-红河区补选入主省议会,使保守党占领了1999年以来就一直由自由党把持的选区。Bob Mok的文章详细解析了这场可能有助于重塑安省政治格局的重头补选战。
PC Conservative candidate Raymond Cho rode the blue wave to the provincial parliament, winning the by-election in Scarborough Rouge River, the riding that has been held by the Liberals since 1999. Bob Mok has shed light on this high profile by-election that may help reshape the Ontario political landscape. 
 
                                        
 
在蓝色风暴的席卷下,保守党在士嘉堡-红河区省议员补选中大获全胜。这是自由党自1999年以来首次在该选区落败,同时也标志着保守党自2013年进军多伦多选区以来的首次胜利。

The blue (Conservatives) wave has rolled through the Scarborough-Rouge River by-election. For the first time since 1999, this Liberal baton has fallen. This also marks the first-time since 2013 when the Progressive Conservative Party has taken a Toronto riding.


在经过长期坚持不懈的努力,一路披荆斩棘后,韩裔市议员赵成俊终于在政坛更上一层楼,成为最新入主安省议会的保守党省议员,同时他也是自布朗担任安省保守党党领以来胜选的第三名保守党省议员。

Raymond Cho, a Korean City Councillor has finally reached the next level in politics after many long tries and a journey full of obstacles. He is the newly minted MPP for the Progressive Conservatives at Queen's Park and the third one since Patrick Brown became Party Leader.


赵成俊是如何在竞选中脱颖而出,他的支持率有多高?在论述这些之前,让我们先来了解一下参与此次补选的众多党派。在此次补选的候选人名单中共有11名来自不同党派的候选人,即便这不是我在近代选举史中见过的候选人最多的选举,也肯定是候选人最多的选举之一。其中有许多候选人明知自己当选的几率几乎为零,参与其中只是为了乐趣和提高自己的曝光度。

How did he perform on the campaign and what are the numbers that supported him? Before we do that, let us look at the participation of the numerous factions that threw their hat into the ring. There were 11 different candidates on the ballots, one of the most if not the most that I have seen in recent election history. Many candidates jump on the wagon for fun and exposure, knowing that the chances of getting elected are next to zero.


最有趣的候选人是来自“以上皆非”党的“znoneofthe”,为了能在此次补选候选人名单中占据最后位置不惜依法更改自己的姓名。但令人惊讶的是,他的得票并没有垫底,其以0.54%的得票率在所有候选人中名列第七。他代表了部分对现有候选人感到厌烦,从而通过投票间接谴责政体的选民。所幸的是,投票支持他的选民只略超100人。

The most interesting candidate is a person by the name of “znoneofthe” from the “None of the Above” Party. Yes, he changed his name legally to assure that he will be listed last on the ballots. Amazingly, he did not come last. He was 7th from the top at 0.54%. He represented the portion of voters who are fed up with the candidates available and voted indirectly for an indictment of the system. Thankfully, that only captured a little over 100 voters.


在此次补选中,赵成俊以9,693票胜出,得票率为38.6%;田锐(自由党)以7,264票位居第二(得票率28.9%);山恩(新民主党)以6,883票排名第三(得票率27.4%)。共有逾2.5万选民参与了此次补选投票,投票率为28.14%。由于保守党在竞选后期曾发出信息承诺“推翻”富有争议的性教育大纲,许多人认为Queen Yu可能会从中获益,但最终其只以2.32%的得票率排名第四,表明性教育大纲未对补选结果造成明显影响。

Raymond Cho won with 9,693 votes or 38.6% followed by Thiru's (Liberal Party) 7,264 votes (28.9%), Shan (NDP) came third with 6,883 votes (27.4%). Over 25,000 Voters participated representing 28.14% of all eligible voters. Queen Yu who many thought might benefit from a last minute incident concerning a Conservative Party flyer promising to “scrap” the controversial sex-education curriculum came in fourth at 2.32% ,showing the sex-ed curriculum had no significant impact on the results.  


鉴于该选区有90%少数族裔人口,怂恿选民投票支持“族裔候选人”的策略不容忽视。泰米尔裔候选人(自由党和新民主党候选人)获得了有限的族裔选票,赵成俊则获得其余选民的支持。许多泰米尔人一直在为投票从一开始就可能出现分流感到惋惜,但他们无法改变现状。虽然这种情况在过去的选举中也曾出现过,但却都是现任者和挑战者之争!而这一次,自由党的新秀候选人却未能守住堡垒。

This riding consists of 90% of visible minorities and the urge to vote for “Heritage candidates” cannot be ignored.  The Tamil candidates (Liberal and NDP) drew from the finite number of heritage votes and Cho picked up on the rest of the voters. Many Tamils were lamenting the possibility for split voting from the start but they are helpless to change the situation. This happened in the past elections but it was with an incumbent and a challenger! This time, the Liberal rookie cannot hold the fort.


赵成俊在担任市议员期间所积攒的数十年的人气使得他拥有主场作战优势,而支持率下降亦使得自由党更加难以守住该选区。在竞选刚开始时,保守党就因为许多“竞选标牌请求”而深受鼓舞,他们一度认为自己的候选人能够获得50%的投票,从而足以证明自由党在安省的好运正在“逐渐消失”。但是在竞选临近尾声时,一位可能“过分热心”的志愿者所犯的无心之失却令其他许多志愿者的辛勤工作成果付诸东流。

Raymond Cho is playing on home-turf with decades of support as a City Councillor. The drop in Liberal Party popularity added to their difficulties to retain the riding. At the start of the campaign, the conservatives were encouraged by the many “request for election signs”. They felt that they can get a 50% share of votes for their candidate to show the Liberals that their fortunes in this Province is “waning”. Towards the end, a careless mistake by a supposedly “overzealous” volunteer most messed up the hard work by the many volunteers.

 
上周,许多选民都收到一封有布朗签名的宣传信。布朗在信中承诺将会“推翻”性教育大纲。但是在几天后,布朗为相关“错误”道歉,并再次重申自己支持性教育大纲,但可能会对现有课程内容进行调整。自由党随即谴责布朗是“反复无常”的领导人,但这显然是五十步笑百步,因为自由党此前也曾多次反复无常,最近一个例子就是自由党省府迄今耗费$7000万元创设的安省退休金计划胎死腹中。

Last week, votes received a letter signed by Brown. In the letter, Brown pledged to “scrap” the sex-education curriculum. A few days later Brown apologized  for the “mistake” and once again re-affirmed his support for the lesson plan but probably not in its present contents. He was immediately labelled a “flip-flop” leader by the Liberals, akin to a kettle calling the pot black. The Liberals flip-flopped many times, the most recent one being the scrapping of the Ontario Pension Plan costing $70 million to-date.

 
此次补选亦是安省选民对执政自由党及其领导人的公投。下次省选将于2018年初春进行(如果省长决定改选则会提前选举)。鉴于不断传出的丑闻和持续膨胀的赤字,自由党唯一的出路就是在下次选举之前持续不断地向选民撒钱。工会和选民是否还会支持深陷困境的自由党?沉默的选民是否会在下次选举中走向投票箱以寻求改变?结局已经注定,让我们拭目以待!

This election is a referendum on the ruling Provincial Liberals and its leader. The next General election will be in early spring 2018 (or sooner if the Premier chooses to call one). Given the scandals and the ballooning deficits, their only recourse is to throw money at the voters consistently till election time. Will the unions and voters still support this ailing Liberal party? Will the silent voters come forward next time and demand changes? The writing is on the wall and the clock is ticking!
 
 
 
 

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