内容

中国政府警告老百姓远离加国房市
Beijing’s new propaganda war: Canada no longer the capital safe haven

中国投资者将加国房地产市场视为投资安全避风港,但他们的政府却另有其说,并警告称加国房产投资者将面临巨大的崩市风险。

Chinese investors believe that Canadian housing markets are safe investment havens, but their government says not, giving out warnings that those who invest in Canadian real estate face tremendous risks of market crash. 

近年来,大量中国投资源源不断地涌入加国房市。据经济学家估计,中国买家在2015年花费近$120亿元在温哥华购置房产,占到当地房产销售总额的33%。与此同时,多伦多也有总额达$84亿元的房产被中国买家纳入囊中,占到该市房产销售总额的14%。

Canadian housing market has been flooded with a large amount of Chinese investments in recent years. According to economist estimates, in 2015, Chinese buyers shelled out nearly $12 billion on real estate in Vancouver, accounting for 33 per cent of the city’s sales. For Toronto, the number was at $8.4 billion, representing 14 per cent of sales.

导致中国热钱外流规模达到触目惊心之地步的主要原因是中国民众对国家经济放缓心存担忧,对现任政府普遍存在不信任感,并且越来越担心人民币贬值。大量资本外流已经引起中国政府的高度重视和关注,并促使其采取激进手段阻止本国资金继续流向加国房市。

The massive outflow of money from China – which hit tsunami proportions, has been driven by fears of its slowing economy, the distrust of the Chinese government and a declining currency. The capital outflow has caused great concerns to the government and prompted its aggressive efforts to stanch the outpouring of the money into the Canadian housing markets. 

正因为如此,中国政府启动了其在全世界最臭名昭著的宣传机器,公开诋毁加拿大作为全球投资避风港的国际声誉。中国政府所控制的媒体亦接连发文解析加国经济形势及加国政府政策,并警告中国买家远离加国房市。

As such, the Chinese government taps into its most notorious propaganda operations in the world by publicly attacking Canada’s reputation as being a haven for global investments. China’s state controlled media published articles dissecting the Canadian economy and the Canadian government, and warning Chinese buyers of danger of owning Canadian properties. 
 
中国最大财经门户网站和讯网就曾发文抨击加拿大的债务拉动型经济,称加国居民的债务与收入比已经升至165%,为G7国家中最高。而在2008年爆发美国房市危机时,美国居民的债务与收入比只有147%,比加国的现有比率还低17%。此外,文章还对中国买家发出警告,称加国房市有可能遭遇比2008年美国房地产危机更惨烈的崩盘。

An article published on HeXun, China’s largest financial portal, targeted at Canada’s debt fueled economy, saying Canadians have the largest debt-to-income ratio of any G7 country, with the average spending 165% of their salary. But during the US housing crisis in 2008, American’s debt-to-income ratio reached only 147% -- 17% lower than where Canada sits. Moreover, it warns buyers that Canada could be headed for a housing market crash worse than the one the U.S. experienced in 2008.

虽然加国房市的确存在诸多风险因素,但预言其将会重演美国2008年次贷危机却是严重夸大其词。美国房地产危机主要是缘于房贷欺诈成风,但除非是利率突然大幅上调,加国高企的债务与收入比则不会造成严重风险。事实上目前世界各地的贷款利率都仍然处于历史低位,并且没有迹象显示利率会很快大幅上升。

While risks factors exist in the Canadian housing markets, the prediction of US 2008 subprime crisis is greatly over exaggerated.  The US housing crisis was caused by widespread mortgage fraud, but Canada’s high debt -to-income ratio would not pose significant risks unless interest rate sharply rises. The fact is that the lending rate around the world remains incredibly low, and there is no indication that it will rise significantly anytime soon. 

全球经济学家的共识是,加国房市不会出现美国式的崩溃,但有可能步入调整或降温通,并不会对加国经济造成严重影响。本周,联邦政府又宣布对房贷和税收制度进行改革,以降低贷款风险和为过热房市降温。这些新举措有望防止房市出现暴跌剧痛,并有可能给加国房市将永远上涨的神话画上句号。

The consensus of global economists is that there won’t be a US style crash in the Canadian housing market, but might be a correction or slowdown, which may not bring severe impact to the Canadian economy. This week, Ottawa announced sweeping changes in mortgage lending and tax rules to reduce lending risks and to cool down the overheated housing markets. These measures are expected to prevent painful corrections ahead and may bring Canada’s housing fantasy to an end. 

虽然中国臭名昭著的宣传战早已是闻名遐迩,但其却从未成功达到其预期目的。在最近中国股市崩盘后的止损行动中,中国政府穷尽一切宣传手段审查新闻,抨击批评言论并炮轰西方媒体报道。但是随着投资者成群结队地逃离股市,带着大笔资金进入外国市场,中国政府的这些努力全都化为泡影。

China’s propaganda operations have been notoriously infamous in the world but it has never succeeded in achieving its agenda. In its recent damage-control operation after the stock market crash, it exhausted every propaganda means by censoring press, denouncing criticisms and attacking western reports. But these efforts totally fell apart as investors flee the stock market in droves, bringing large amount of capitals to the foreign markets.

毋庸置疑,中国政府以加国面临巨大房地产崩盘以及经济严重不稳之风险的虚假信息愚弄老百姓,但这种做法到头来只会是一场自毁宣传战,并进一步削弱民众对政府的信心。

Needless to say, fooling its citizens with deceptive information that Canada is facing substantial risks of housing crisis and significant economic instability will ruin Beijing’s propaganda operations and further erode its citizens’ confidence on the government. 
 
 
 

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