谁将在保守党党魁竞选中胜出？

 

 

 

 

将于2017年5月27举行的联邦保守党(CPC)党魁选举已进入倒计时。在一直处于领跑地位的候选人欧列利于2017年4月26日宣布退选后，目前仍有13名候选人在竞逐联邦保守党党魁。

The countdown is on for the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) leadership race to be held on May 27, 2017. Right now, there are still thirteen candidates after Frontrunner Kevin O'Leary dropped out of the contest on April 26, 2017. 

 

在这13名候选人中，只有七人有机会获胜，我在之前的文章中已经一一介绍过他们的背景。他们分别是卞聂尔、奥图、利奇、谢尔、雷蒂、亚历山大和庄文浩。

Of the thirteen candidates, only seven will have any chances to win and their profiles were given in my earlier articles. They are: Maxime Bernier,  Erin O'Toole, Kellie Leitch, Andrew Scheer, Lisa Raitt, Chris Alexander, and Michael Chong. 

 

但令许多观察家感到意外的是，其他一些候选人都没有弃选认输。而在通常情况下，那些胜选无望的候选人都会在此时宣布退出转而支持领先候选人之一，并号召自己的支持者将票投给他们所支持的候选人。这如同买彩票，因为这些支持举动可能会在未来换来胜选者的回报。

It is surprising to many observers that there are no white flags waved by some of the other candidates. Typically, those without hope will throw in their towels at this time and endorse one of the front-runners, asking their own supporters to vote for the endorsed candidate. Very much like a lottery, these actions may garnish future assignments from the winning candidate.

目前，共有259,010名保守党员有资格参加联邦保守党党魁选举投票。全国各地所有338个选区皆一视同仁，每个选区都代表100分，总分为33,800分。候选人至少必须获得16,901分，也就是超过可获分的50%才能赢得党魁选举。

There are 259,010 eligible voters in the leadership race. All 338 ridings across the country are weighted equally and have 100 points each, making the total 33,800 points. The leadership contest winner will need at least 16,901 points, or just more than 50 per cent of the points available. 

联邦保守党党魁选举是采用优先选择投票制，在选举中党员会按照自己的意向，用排序数字对多达10名党魁候选人进行排名，如果在第一轮计票中没有候选人赢得50%以上的多数选票，第一选择票最少的候选人将被淘汰出局，而其所得的选票将会重新分配给其他候选人并进行再次计票。如此循环计票将会反复进行，直至有候选人赢得半数以上支持。

The party is using the preferential-ballot system, in which party members will vote for up to 10 leadership candidates numerically, from their most to least preferred. The person with the least number of first-choice votes will be dropped after the first ballot. The eliminated candidates’ ballots will be distributed among the other candidates and count again. The process will be repeated until someone receives more than 50 per cent support. 

鉴于联邦保守党党魁候选人人数众多，并且领先候选人势均力敌，似乎任何人都不太可能在第一轮投票中就赢得半数以上支持。

Considering the high number of leadership candidates and close contest, it appears unlikely that anyone will be able to win 50 per cent plus support on the first ballot.

欧列利在退选时转为支持卞聂尔。但就在此前一个月，欧列利曾投诉另一名候选人的阵营非法购买逾1300名党员的党籍，而许多人都认为该名候选人就是卞聂尔。

When Kevin O'Leary dropped out of the race, he endorsed Maxime Bernier. Only one month before that, O’Leary complained about illegal purchases of over 1300 memberships by another candidate's camp. Many believed that candidate to be Maxime. 

 

从分析角度看，联邦保守党新党魁将从以下四位候选人中产生，他们分别是卞聂尔、奥图、谢尔和利奇。外界则普遍希望胜选者肯定会说流利的法语，以便能够在下届联邦选举中俘获魁北克省的选票。而在上述四位候选人中，只有卞聂尔完全符合这一要求，奥图和谢尔的法语都不够流利，利奇的法语更是不及格。亚历山大虽然会说流利的法语，但他却并非领先候选人。

Realistically, the winner will come from one of the following 4 candidates:Maxime Bernier, Erin O'Toole, Andrew Scheer, and Kellie Leitch. There are expectations that the winner will be able to communicate in French fluently to capture the Quebec votes in a Federal election. Out of these 4 above, only Maxime will qualify without questions. Erin and Andrew are both struggling with French and Kellie does not have a passing grade. Chris Alexander is another excellent French speaker but he is not a front-runner.

如果联邦保守党要组建多数政府，他们就必须将魁北克省的绝大多数席位都纳入囊中。考虑到这一点，许多选民在投票时都会认真考虑这一因素。在我看来，联邦保守党新党魁不是卞聂尔就是奥图，但利奇也有可能会成“黑马”，即意外取胜。

For the Conservative Party to form a majority government, they must capture a good portion of the Quebec seats. With that in mind, many voters will be influenced heavily by this one factor alone. In my opinion, the new leader will either be Maxime or Erin while Kellie may be the “dark horse”.

但是，利奇的要求所有新移民接受“加拿大”价值观面试的竞选政纲也使得她在整个竞选过程中一直身陷争议。

Kellie's centrepiece of campaign is a requirement that all newcomers be interviewed to verify their "Canadian" values and this has been controversial through out her campaign. 

事实证明特鲁多总理领导的联邦自由党政府在兑现竞选承诺方面并不靠谱。此外，特鲁多的领导能力也差强人意，并且导致加国陷入远高于其竞选承诺的巨额赤字。联邦保守党必须拥有一位既有能力又有魅力的新党魁带领他们搏杀下届大选和组建下届联邦政府。而在此次党魁选举中选出合适的领导人将是迈向胜利的第一步。

The Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau proved to be unreliable when it comes to fulfilling election campaign promises. Trudeau also shows poor leadership and brings on huge national deficits beyond his election mandate. The Conservatives must produce a competent and charismatic leader to go into the next election and form the next Federal government. Selecting the right person in this leadership race will be a first step towards that victory.