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房屋按揭增幅加快是房地产回暖的标志
Pace of mortgage borrowing picks up, signalling end to real estate lull




根据环球邮报的报道,9月份是加拿大一年多以来房屋按揭增幅最大的一个月,也显明了房地产市场从长期平静中反弹的最新迹象。

根据加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)的最新数据,9月份房屋按揭总额攀升至1.6万亿,同比增长4.2%。 信贷规模已连续七个月呈增长的趋势。 在此之前,随着各种住房法规的生效,包括针对高房价城市降温的无保险房屋按揭进行的压力测试,使得房价一直持续回调。

房屋按揭使用规模的加快表明了较低的房屋按揭利率正在开始刺激购房者消费的信心。今年,受政府债券收益率大幅下降的影响,一些机构的房屋按揭利率从最近的高位下跌了多达一个百分点,造成房价的回升。

根据加拿大房地产协会的最新数据,在大多伦多地区,基准房价在9月份上涨了5%,达到创纪录的$806,700。

根据加拿大地产协会(Canadian Real Estate Association,CREA)的数据,在经历了低迷的2018年(自2012年以来全国销量最低)之后,9月份的房屋销量较去年同期增长了16%,而且全国所有大城市的房屋销量均出现增长的好势头。



加拿大抵押和住房公司(Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.,CMHC)预计,在利好的经济环境和人口增长需求的带动下,2020年和2021年的房屋销量会呈现增长。

同时,房屋按揭的来源也在发生变化。商业银行的房屋按揭在9月份比去年同期增长了4.5%,是16个月来最大的增幅。在2018年推出B-20法规之后,增长降至3%以下,该法规对无保险的房屋按揭实施了更严格的资格审查。

这些规定生效后,非银行贷款机构的贷款申请额突然大幅增加,增速超过了商业银行。同时也引发了政府的担忧,即风险较高的借款人正转向监管程度较低的贷款机构。 (非银行贷款机构包括信托,信用合作社和其他机构,其中许多机构实施的规则与商业银行的不同。)

但是,随着金融紧缩状况的缓解,非银行贷款的增长开始放缓,并且商业银行仍然拥有住宅房屋按揭的最大份额。

丰业银行(Scotiabank)的经济学家在一份研究报告中指出,“由于经济的持续不稳定性,加拿大央行需要不断实施刺激经济的措施,预计房屋按揭的增长态势在近期不会有所改变。”

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