为什么中国2015 PISA排名陡降

China has sharply fallen in PISA global rankings, from the first place in 2009 and 2012 to 10th place in 2015, while many countries including Canada remained at the relatively same level, according to a recently released test results that showed how 15-year-old students in various countries performed in reading, science and math. There is a good explanation of the dramatic drop: the 2015 results were in better compliance with PISA sampling procedures and more representative of the academic performance of students in China than the results of 2009 and 2012. 

来自中国多个省份（北京、上海、广东、江苏）的学生2015年的科学平均分为518分，而在2012年代表中国出战的上海学生的科学平均分为580分。与此同时，中国学生的2015年阅读和数学平均分分别为494分和531分，与2012年的570分阅读平均分和613分数学平均分相比似乎也都呈现急剧下降。

In 2015, Students from multiple provinces in China (Beijing-Shanghai-Guangzhou-Jiansu) scored a median 518 in science, compared with the 580 that students from Shanghai scored in 2012. Students scored 494 in reading in 2015 and 531 in math, both seemed a sharp drop from the 2012 scores – 570 in reading and 613 in math.  

2015年的PISA测试结果亦促使中国媒体探寻本国学生排名下滑的原因。《中国日报》的一篇报道称，更多省份学生参加测试“有可能导致排名下降”，但“这可能还涉及其他一些因素。”

The 2015 test results have prompted Chinese media to seek answers for the performance decline. A China Daily report says that adding more provinces to the test “might have caused the dip”, but that “it could have had other contributing factors”.

事实上，通过增加更多省份扩大学生的参与度有效地提高测试结果的代表性，尽管结果可能令人失望。

In fact, expanding the students’ participation by adding more provinces has improved the representatives of the test results, although they are disappointing.

中国的2012年PISA排名曾让全世界深感震惊并引发了媒体轰动，大量媒体报道纷纷表达了对中国学生拔得全球头筹的惊讶之情，其中《时代周刊》发表了题为“中国教育力克芬兰在国际评估中夺冠”的头条文章；彭博社的头条标题则是“中国学生国际评估夺冠 美国学生成绩落后”；CBC News亦称，虽然加国学生得分高于平均分，但远远落后于领跑的中国上海学生。在一片焦虑、失望和羞愧情绪浪潮中，西方媒体亦提出了一个亟待解答且发人深省的问题：中国是全世界最聪明的国家么？

China’s performance in 2012 have shocked the whole world and sparked a media frenzy, with a flood of media reports expressing their astonishment at the global top performers: “China Beats out Finland for Top Marks in Education”, TIME’s headline declared; US Teens Lag as China Soars on International Test”, Bloomberg’s headline points out; Canadian scores above average, but well behind the front-running students in Shanghai China: said CBC News. Amid anxiety, disappointment and shame, a burning but provocative question was raised by Western media: Is China the world’s cleverest country?

但事实上，获得PISA竞赛的头奖却非但显示中国是全世界最聪明的国家，但却暴露其不诚实一面的真相。前哈佛大学政策学教授Tom Loveless的报告指出，在进行测试结果评估时应该从全国各地的学生中进行随机抽样，以便更加客观地反映全国水平。但在2009年和2012年，虽然中国有十多个省份的学生都参加了PISA测试，但却仅允许以全中国最富裕且教育水平最高的上海市的学生测试成绩代表全国水平。

But in fact, taking the top place in the race wasn’t a sign of China’s intelligence, but a sign of its dishonesty.  According to the report from Tom Loveless, former Harvard policy professor, the test results assessment should be randomly sampled from students across a country in a way that can be representative of the nation. In 2009 and 2012 tests, over a dozens of Chinese provinces took the PISA tests but only scores of Shanghai, the richest city in China and with the highest level of education was allowed to be used to represent the whole country.

据Loveless教授称，中国曾与经济合作与发展组织（OECD）达成非同寻常的协议，从而可以在2009年和2012年的PISA测试中只公布上海学生的成绩。

According to Prof Loveless, China has an unusual arrangement with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), allowing it to release Shanghai score only in 2009 and 2012 PISA tests. 

统计数据显示，约有84%上海高中毕业生能够进入大学，该比例远远高于24%的全国平均水平。同时上海的人均GDP也比全国平均水平高出一倍多。此外，上海家长对于孩子的课外教育往往不惜重金投资，他们每年平均花费6,000元人民币为孩子聘请英语和数学家教，同时还会花费9,600元人民币让孩子参加周末补习，这些学费甚至超过了普通中国工人一年的收入。

According to stats, about 84 percent of Shanghai high school graduates go to college, compared to 24 percent nationally. Shanghai’s per capita GDP is more than twice that of China as a whole.  And Shanghai’s parents invest heavily in their children’s education outside of school, with their annual spending of 6,000 yuan on English and math tutors and 9,600 yuan on weekend activities, which exceeded what average Chinese workers’ annual salary. 

现任Brookings Institution高级研究员的Loveless向美联社表示：“坦率地说我难以解读上海学生的测试成绩，因为它们几乎没有任何意义，用上海的测试成绩代表整个中国的教育水平是错误之举。”

“The Shanghai scores frankly to me are difficult to interpret. They are almost meaningless,” Loveless, currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told AP. “Using Shanghai test score to represent China is wrong.”

随着反对遮掩其他省份测试成绩的呼声不断高涨，OECD终于同意在2015年PISA测试中增加三个省份。但遗憾的是，随着学生样本增多，2015年测试成绩亦显示出中国其他省份的学生根本无法复制上海学生的辉煌表现。与此同时，这一测试结果亦有力地显示中国政府为寻求自欺欺人的盲目自信而不惜试图操纵全球科学竞赛之结果之劣迹。

Amid backlash against hiding other provinces’ test scores, the OECD agreed to include three more provinces in the 2015 PISA test. Unfortunately, with wider samples, the 2015 test results have shown the Shanghai’s stellar performance could not be replicated by other provinces. The result can be a powerful proof of Chinese government’s effort to manipulate test results in global competition，revealing how far it is willing to go to seek deceptive self-assurance.