民意网调偏激，混乱 特鲁多取消选举改革

 

 

自联邦自由党在大选中所承诺的选举改革始, 选举改革特别委员会的构成及其成员任命议程就引发了争议。之后，主管选举改革特别委员会的联邦民主建制部长(Maryam Monsef)被指违反移民法。最后，部长公开批评该委员会的报告，导致委员会成员此前所有的工作及公听会成果遭到质疑。

The electoral reform promised in the last election started with controversies involved in the formation of the Committee and the appointments of its members. Then the Federal Minister of the Democratic Institutions in charge of the Special Committee on Electoral Reform (Maryam Monsef) was alleged to have broken immigration laws. Finally, the Minister's public disagreement with the committee's reports discredited all the work done by its members and the public hearings.

 

 

选举改革委员会在2016年12月1日提交的多数派报告建议就某种形式的比例代表制进行公投，但报告并未详细说明具体采用哪种模式。与此同时，联邦新民主党和绿党的委员会成员亦公布了联合补充报告，联邦自由党的委员会成员也公布了自己的报告。但该委员会并未推进深受联邦自由党政府青睐的“排名投票”制度。

On Dec1, 2016 the committee majority report suggested that a referendum be held on some form of Proportional Representation without specifying any particular model. There were also joint supplementary reports from NDP and Green party members, as well as one from the Liberal Party members of the committee. The Committee did not produce the Liberal government's preferred “Ranked Balloting” system. 

 

 

联邦自由党政府并不想就选举改革事宜进行公投，而是选择在2016年12月创建了一个耗资$33万元的网站以进行民调，当局（花费$183万元）将大约1500万份调查邀请函寄送至加国每一户家庭，但最终只有约3%或40万户家庭予以应答。许多人批评相关网调偏激且混乱。此外，此次网调亦缺乏适当的保障和验证措施以确保所有答复都是来自成年加拿大人，并且也无法防止同一个人多次作答。许多人认为相关网调的最大缺陷是没有就具体的选举制度进行直接提问。

The Federal Government also did not want to hold a referendum. Instead, it created a $330,000 web site in December, 2016 for a survey and send out about 15 million invitations in the mail (costing $1.83 million) to every household in Canada which ultimately solicited a roughly 3 percent or 400,000 responses. The survey was criticized by many as biased and misleading. It also lacked the proper securities and verification to ensure that these were responses from adult Canadians only, and could not preclude multiple entries from the same person(s). The biggest flaw identified by many is that the survey fails to ask direct questions about specific voting systems.

 

 

在联邦内阁于2017年1月进行改组后，主管选举改革特别委员会的联邦民主建制部长（Monsef)改由Karina Gould接任，她也因此接手了向加国人士提供相关民意网调结果的艰巨任务。

The Federal Cabinet was shuffled in January, 2017 and the Federal Minister of the Democratic Institutions in charge of the Special Committee on Electoral Reform (Monsef) was replaced by Karina Gould. She was given the formidable and unenviable task to provide the results of the survey to the Canadians.

 

 

但相关的网调结果含混不清。约有三分之二加国人士对本国的民选制度感到满意。他们还认为各方应该携手合作共同作出决定，只是在当前的选举制度下如何实现这一建议让人捉摸不透。鉴于多数派政府始终能够推进自己的任务，只给其他政党留下很小空间与其合作和干预其议程，我们只能推测人们希望建立一个“少数派”政府，因为只有少数党政府才能在随时而来的大选之威胁下促使各政党通力合作。

The survey results are ambiguous. About two-thirds of Canadians are generally satisfied with the country’s democracy. They also think parties should make decisions collaboratively. Just how that can be accomplished under the current election system is not immediately clear to everyone. A majority government will always exercise its mandate and leave very little room for other parties to work together and interfere with their agenda. We can only surmise that people are wishing for a “minority” government because only then will the parties work together under the threat of another quick election.

 

或许一些受访者是赞同“比例代表制”的，但他们无法通过此次网调明确表达心声。由于该选举制度是按照投票人口比例分配各主要和边缘政党的议席数额，因此几乎无可避免会产生少数派政府。但在实施这种选举制度之前，现行的“简单多数制”似乎也很适合加国。

 

May be the respondents were favouring the “Proportional Representation” system but they cannot convey that definitively through the survey. That system will almost certainly produce minority governments given the distribution of core supporters for each major and fringe parties within the voting population. Until such system is in place, the existing First-past-the-post voting system seems to be adequate.

 

 

相关调查报告还称，“加国人士乐于接受可以更加明确地表达个人偏好的选项，但并不愿意接受会导致一种更加难以解释的投票制度。”看起来联邦政府似乎是想要我们认同对于普通选民来说，“排名投票制”并不是容易理解和使用的选举制度。但令人讶异的是，该选举制度之前曾是特鲁多总理首选的替代选举制度。

The survey also reported that “Canadians are receptive to options to express their preferences with greater specificity, but not if the result is a ballot that is more difficult to interpret.” It would seem that the government wants us to agree that the “Rank Balloting” system is not an easy system for the average voter to understand and use. Surprisingly, this is Prime Minister Trudeau's preferred system at an earlier date.

实际上，联邦自由党自己都没有想到能在上次大选中新建多数派政府，他们根本就不想实施新的选举制度。他们一直在想方设法寻找借口，现在他们将此归咎于公众未能就选举改革事宜达成一致。

The Liberals were surprised by their new-found majority in the last election and do not want to have a new electoral system after all. They are just trying to find the excuses and now blame it on the backs of a lack of public consensus. 

2月1日，特鲁多总理在发给Gould部长的任命书中明确表示“改革选举制度不在你的权责之内。”这实际上也意味着选择新选举制度的选举改革计划已经画上句号。特鲁多违背了自己的竞选承诺！

On Feb 1, the Prime Minister issued a directive to Minister Gould indicating to her that “Changing the Electoral System will not be in your Mandate”. This effectively spelled the end to the electoral reform project to select a new voting system. Trudeau has reneged on his election promise!

 

 

联邦新民主党、魁人政团和绿党是最大的输家。在上次大选中，他们的许多追随者都在自己所支持政党没有取胜机会的选区转为投票支持联邦自由党，并因此击败了联邦保守党候选人。他们都期望在实施新选举制度后，能够通过“比例代表制”获得更多议席。由于轻信了联邦自由党，这些边缘政党现在自食其果。至于联邦自由党，这只不过是在他们所违背的选举承诺的冗长清单上又添了一笔。 

The NDP, PQ, and Green Parties are the big losers. In the last election, many of their followers switched and voted for the Liberals and defeated the Conservative candidates in ridings where their own parties did not have a chance. They were hoping that the new voting system will put more of their members to Parliament through “Proportional Representation”. Trusting the Liberals, these fringe parties now reap the seeds they sowed. As for the Liberals, this further adds to their long lists of broken promises to the voters.